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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.