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Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.