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At first, Trump appeared to take a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer if Russia's president carried on hindering peace talks, Trump ultimately introduced substantial penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

However, with his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Aggression

This proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan effectively weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate past, the former president continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, as if handing Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the leader. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a charred swath of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in status the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would require the nation to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that constitute a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a open way to the capital if he later decide to renew the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would enable future conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's plan places no such constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate government as extremists, the plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." As if to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal has Russia pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has broken equivalent agreements in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community trust Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details range from vague to troubling. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the security presence, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

International Response

Another supplementary accord apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, including the US administration, to react with force to Russia's aggression, something they have {not