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Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to the US capital to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial in-person encounter between the two leaders after an extended period of escalating strains and heated exchanges.

Agenda for Talks

Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and American military actions on suspected narco-boats are set to be top on the agenda when they meet at the US presidential residence on the scheduled day.

A History of Tensions

While the two men were cordial in a phone call after a recent American action, Petro has since said he feels there is a "serious risk" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously commented that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".

Tuesday's summit follows months of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly condemned repeated US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the White House's border policies.

"He changed his attitude," the US President reportedly saying prior to the Washington talks.

Points of Contention

From Washington's perspective, Trump has charged Petro's government of not taking sufficient action to halt the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has pledged to extend strikes to land targets across the area.

But, the hostility seemed to subside following a "polite" telephone conversation between the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".

Mediating Role

According to diplomatic sources, a key figure – Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the dialogue. "I believe in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the senator was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relations to improve."

Border Security and the ELN

Prior to the visit, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian worries over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia shares an long border.

Much of that border is under the sway of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and allegedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.

For Trump, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring security for US firms involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Experts point out that the ELN has the potential to spoil investment plans by targeting international businesses and employees, as it has previously done in Colombia.

Drug War Cooperation

An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global largest producer of the drug. In November, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US authorities following comments from Washington.

The US has, in turn, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling drug trafficking. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the president and his relatives.

"There is no fight without Colombia," said a analyst. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also undermine all enforcement efforts."

Potential Outcomes

Despite multiple issues for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... But one never knows."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult encounter could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable situation," noted a regional expert. "A positive outcome undermines opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."