Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.