Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The typical number of everyday killings each month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official figures. But, security specialists have advised that homicide figures may not point to enhanced national safety.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen in these past months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts cautioned that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was also problematic because it may obscure days when there were especially high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.