🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.